The intelligence community of the United States is looking for a researcher to model risk scenarios for how and why the dollar could lose its global supremacy and how to respond best.
The role was advertised on February. 14 by the Office of the Director of the National Intelligence Service (ODNI).
The successful candidate will be charged with evaluating threats to the status of the dollar as a global reserve currency – in particular cryptocurrencies and the emergence of major new economies such as China and India.
Candidates have until February. 28 to apply for the post, which is part of a postdoctoral research fellowship program of the intelligence community (IC) funded by ODNI. The director of National Intelligence, currently Joseph Maguire, reports to the US president, the National Security Council and Homeland Security Council on all national security intelligence issues. He or she leads the National Intelligence Program and leads the US intelligence community.
The subject description for the fellowship begins with the bare statement that “the US maintains international dominance, not least because of its financial power. “
It outlines that the role of the dollar as the global reserve currency ensures that the US can effectively level the sanctions against its perceived opponents – whether it is to discourage nuclear proliferation or what they regard as offensive domestic regimes. weaken.
Control over the supply and distribution of the dollar – which is used to determine the external debt and settle the lion’s share of global transactions – thus exerts pressure on nations to adjust to geopolitical, strategic and economic interests from the US. But as ODNI notes:
“There are many threats to the US dollar that maintains its status as the global reserve currency. Countries such as China and India have large growing economies that can compete with US economic growth. Many cryptocurrency enthusiasts predict that a global cryptocurrency or a national digital currency could undermine the US dollar. “
The investigator will therefore be responsible for studying and modeling these scenarios, as well as other, unpredictable or “black swan” events that could take over the strategic supremacy of the dollar.
ODNI is looking for someone who is able to “apply new statistical and artificial intelligence approaches to historical examples and possible future scenarios” – someone who is fluent in economics, finance and emerging “alternative banking mechanisms”.
Such research is expected to provide new insights into the best way to protect the United States status in the global economy, allowing the national intelligence community to anticipate destabilizing developments and implement strategies that would undermine their success:
“If the US dollar loses its status […] National security benefits disappear and leave the US vulnerable. With this project, the national security community can prepare for and […] prevent this economic crisis. “
Analysts have long debated what the greenback could replace as a global reserve asset, pointing to trends such as the gradual de-dollarization of Eurasia, or China’s deeper economic ties with Europe.
In both the public and private sectors, new digital currency projects such as Facebook’s Libra have been interpreted differently by global stakeholders.
In 2019, for example, the former governor of the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) claimed that “the valuation of Libra is inextricably linked to the global dollarization trend.”
Within the US, the PBoC’s own future digital yuan, on the other hand, have been viewed as a potential threat to the dominance of the dollar.