There is no single sporting event that offers more betting opportunities than the Super Bowl, from the standard line availability to a prop sheet longer than most children’s books. There are, quite literally, thousands of ways to bet on the Super Bowl and we are going to parse through this year’s Super Bowl LIV props sheet from William Hill US to find the 10 best bets available that aren’t your typical lines and totals.
The Chiefs and 49ers will meet for the right to hoist the Lombardi Trophy on Sunday in Miami, and for actual game picks (plus a few props) in this week’s Winners from Brad, you can go here. We’re going to dive a bit deeper into the prop sheet to find as much value as possible, because what is the Super Bowl if not the one opportunity all year to bet on weird football vs. golf props and more.
Now, since we are using the William Hill prop sheet, there will not be some of the more wild props available that you can find on offshore books that will let you bet on Jennifer Lopez’s butt cleavage (that is, indeed, a real prop) and things of that nature. That’s not to say you can’t get weird at a Vegas establishment, but there is a limit to what they’ll put on the board. Also, despite what Uncut Gems might’ve taught you, no, you cannot parlay prop bets.
With that out of the way, let’s get to my 10 favorite prop bets for Super Bowl LIV:
TYREEK HILL RECEIVING YARDS (-3.5) v. Saudi International Winner’s 4th Round Score
We all know Hill is a big play waiting to happen, and he picks up big chunks of yards at a time. As such, his receiving yards prop is 74.5. Last year, the Saudi International was won by Dustin Johnson (back again this year among other big names who take massive checks to simply play in the event) who shot a final round 67. No one in the top 17 (!) of last year’s event shot higher than a 69 in the final round, because it’s set up for scoring and low scores. That means, you are getting line value here, as the winner’s score in Saudi is almost assuredly going to be sub-70, which means even laying 3.5, you’re a better deal here than you would get on his yardage total prop. Let’s take that value.
PASCAL SIAKAM PTS + REBS (-1.5) v. Jimmy Garoppolo Passing Attempts
Again, we’re looking for value and while Brad gave out Jimmy G’s attempts OVER (and I think that’s the side I’d lean towards on that prop), he can clear that number and Siakam still seems like a good bet here. The Raptors are playing the Bulls, who are not good, and Siakam and the Raptors have been dusting bad teams all year. On the season he’s averaging just shy of 24 and 8, and I think if he can just put together that kind of night with 32 combined or more, this one can go to the window with Jimmy G getting 30 attempts — something he’s done only seven times in 19 games.
49ERS MOST FIELD GOALS MADE (+120)
Both kickers have props set at 1.5, so getting +120 here feels like value. I think the Niners will likely be looking to simply put points on the board early, so give me the candy and the legend Robbie Gould to pump a few through the uprights.
KYLE JUSZCZYK OVER 0.5 RUSHING ATTEMPTS (+250)
He has three carries all year as the highest paid fullback in football. He’s not on film doing anything but smashing linebackers and DBs as a blocker and the occasional catch out of the backfield. They’ve been patiently waiting to unleash a misdirection FB dive on short yardage and this is the game we get it.
MITCH WISHNOWSKY OVER 53.5 YARDS LONGEST GROSS PUNT
The Niners will go three-and-out at some point inside their own 30 and it will be Mitch’s time to absolutely uncork one. The Aussie, by way of Utah, has a cannon for a leg and I believe in him sending one at some point.
CHIEFS FIRST TEAM TO TAKE A TIMEOUT (-110)
You thought I’d miss out on the rare opportunity to bet on Andy Reid clock management? Please, the man lives to light an early timeout on fire.
49ERS UNDER 2.5 SACKS (-110)
Nick Bosa is a monster, leading the way for one of the best fronts in football. I think he and that front will have a huge impact on this game, and think they’ll bother Mahomes at times. The issue is, Mahomes just doesn’t take sacks. He’s taken just 19 in 15 games this season, as he is a master at just getting rid of the football if nothing is there — 8 of the sacks allowed by the Chiefs happened in the 2.5 games Matt Moore was at quarterback. Only twice all season was Mahomes sacked more than twice. I’ll take that trend and the Under, despite knowing how good this front is.
49ERS SCORE FIRST, CHIEFS WIN (14/5)
We’ve just seen this happen two straight games. I like this bet more than taking the Niners to score first at -110. San Francisco is a tremendous, on-script offense. It wouldn’t surprise me if they march on the first drive for a score. I still think the Chiefs win, because they’re the best team at making adjustments in the NFL.
PATRICK MAHOMES YARDS OF LONGEST COMPLETION (-125) v. Total Games In Men’s Aussie Open Final
A 5-set, all tiebreak match would be 65 games. That’s the maximum, and given the possibility of it being a three-set, whitewash now that Nadal is out and Federer and Djokovic play in the semis, I’ll take Mahomes here even laying some juice.
MECOLE HARDMAN OVER 28.5 RECEIVING YARDS
Hardman has 27 yards in two playoff games, but he’s one catch away from getting this. I kind of like that he’s been quiet because if the Niners are locked in on Kelce and Hill, that might leave some chances for Hardman to be the best option for Mahomes. I’ll take him to get Over this number, buying low on a guy who can rip off a big chunk with the swiftness.